Markets are closely watching the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve's most closely monitored inflation indicator. It is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase dropping from 2.8% to 2.6%, potentially providing clearer guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts.

Traders estimate a high probability of 67% for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts within the year still being the mainstream expectation. David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, stated that rate cuts are unlikely before the U.S. presidential election in November in order to stay away from politics.

This week, at least five Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, including voting members Bowman and Cook. Next year's voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee supports rate cuts, stating that further softening of inflation could lead to questions about interest rates being too high. However, this year's voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly said that "there is more work to do" before considering rate cuts.

In addition to the final reading of the U.S. Q1 GDP, which may still show a growth of 1.6%, the first presidential campaign debate between Biden and Trump will take place after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday, and the first round of voting for the French parliamentary elections is on Sunday, both of which could prompt investors to take a defensive position in advance.

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The NASDAQ and S&P have fallen for three consecutive days, while the Dow has risen for five, with Google and Microsoft detaching from their highs, and NVIDIA累计下跌 nearly 13% over three days.

On Monday, June 24th, only the Dow opened higher, with the Dow rising by a maximum of 421 points or more than 1%. Component stock Walmart hit a new high, with energy and banking cyclical stocks showing strong gains, and the Russell small-cap stocks, closely related to the economy, also once led the main indices with a 1% increase.

The S&P 500 index stopped falling and turned positive at the beginning of the session, rising by a maximum of 0.5% during the day, approaching the historical high set last Tuesday, but turned negative at the end of the day. The tech-heavy NASDAQ briefly turned positive before noon, and both the NASDAQ and the chip stock index saw their losses widen near the end of the day and closed at their daily lows.

As of the close, the S&P 500 index fell for three consecutive days to a one-week low, the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 fell for three consecutive days away from their historical highs, having previously broken records for seven consecutive days, with the NASDAQ hitting a two-week low, and the Dow rising for five days to its highest in nearly five weeks:

The S&P 500 index closed down 16.75 points, a decrease of 0.31%, at 5447.87 points. The Dow closed up 260.88 points, a gain of 0.67%, at 39,411.21 points. The NASDAQ closed down 192.54 points, a decrease of 1.09%, at 17,496.82 points.

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.2%, and the NASDAQ Tech Market Value-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the NASDAQ 100, fell by 1.8%, both detaching from new highs for three consecutive days. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose by 0.4%, and the "fear index" VIX rose by 1%, staying above 13.Nasdaq Composite Index falls for three consecutive days, Dow Jones Industrial Average rises for five straight days

The S&P 500 Index's 11 sectors generally closed higher, but companies like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia, and Qualcomm weighed down the technology sector, which plummeted over 2%, with a cumulative correction of 4.44% in the last three trading sessions. The energy sector led with a 2.73% increase.

The energy sector and regional bank stocks performed the best, while large technology stocks collectively plunged.

Bank of America noted that trend-following CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are significant participants in the futures contract market and may intensify the selling of technology stocks. CTAs are overexposed to long positions in Nasdaq 100 futures, which could trigger a collective topping in the near term.

Star technology stocks experienced mixed performance. "Metaverse" Meta rose 0.8%, detaching from a two-week low; Google A fell 0.2%, detaching from an all-time high; Amazon dropped nearly 2%, detaching from a six-week high; Tesla gained over 3% but closed down 0.2%; Netflix fell 2.5% to a one-week low; Apple rose 2.5% but closed up 0.3%, ending a three-day losing streak, with a market value of $3.19 trillion, ranking second in the US stock market; Microsoft fell 0.5%, also detaching from a new high, with a market value of $3.33 trillion, remaining the largest in the US stock market.

Chip stocks saw a significant correction for three consecutive days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3% for three consecutive days, detaching from historical highs, and the industry ETF SOXX fell 2.9% further from its peak. Nvidia fell 6.7%, marking the largest drop in two months, detaching from new highs for three consecutive days, with a market value of less than $3 trillion, ranking third in the US stock market, and Nvidia's double long ETF fell 14%; Broadcom fell 3.7%, falling for four consecutive days away from its peak; ARM fell 5.8%, Qualcomm fell 5.5%, TSMC's US stocks fell 3.5%, Lam Research fell 2.5%, Applied Materials fell 2.4%, Micron Technology fell 0.4%, all detaching from new highs for three consecutive days; Intel fell 1.7%, detaching from a four-week high, and AMD fell 0.6%, which was initially up.

AI concept stocks saw more declines than gains. CrowdStrike fell 0.7%, detaching from new highs for four consecutive days; Oracle fell 1%, detaching from new highs for three consecutive days; SoundHound.ai fell 0.5%; BigBear.ai fell 1.6%; C3.ai rose 2%; Snowflake fell 2.4%, hitting a 17-month low; Palantir rose over 1%; Adobe fell 1.7%, detaching from a three-month high; Dell fell over 5%; AMD fell 8.7%; IBM rose 1.5%.

In terms of news, Nvidia fell for three consecutive days with a cumulative drop of nearly 13%, entering a technical correction, falling 16% from its historical intraday high, marking the largest single-day drop since April, with a market value of over $400 billion evaporated during this period. Although the brokerage Jefferies raised its target price, claiming it could still rise by 19%, Nvidia's stock price is 100% higher than the 200-day moving average, with a bearish technical outlook in the near term. The share sales by executives such as Huang Renxun also severely impacted the stock price. The European Union will take measures against Apple to ensure that its App Store's fees for developers to acquire new customers comply with regulations. Foxconn's chairman Zheng Hongmeng stated that the new generation of AI servers, GB200, is expected to be launched this year. Goldman Sachs is bullish on IBM's AI business.

Chinese concept stocks outperformed the US stock market. ETF KWEB rose 0.4%, CQQQ fell 1% but was close to turning positive at one point during the session, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.9% and closed up 1.3%, once again surpassing 6,000 points, ending a five-day losing streak and detaching from a two-month low.

Popular individual stocks generally rose, with JD.com rising nearly 1%, Baidu rising 0.2%, and Pinduoduo turning down 1.6%. Alibaba rose 1.5%, Tencent's ADR rose 0.5%, Bilibili fell 1.9%, NIO rose over 3%, XPeng Motors rose over 1%, and Li Auto rose 3.6%.Among other significantly changing stocks:

- Logistics giant RXO surged 23% to its historical peak and best single-day performance since listing, acquiring UPS's asset-light freight brokerage business Coyote Logistics for over $1 billion, becoming the world's third-largest freight broker.

- Fintech company Affirm rose nearly 13%, recouping losses since June 13th, with Goldman Sachs rating it as a buy and predicting a 40% increase. Affirm's buy-now-pay-later loan service will be integrated into Apple Pay within the year. PayPal, which was downgraded to neutral by Goldman Sachs, fell nearly 2%.

- The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index rose over 2%, with Alnylam, a heart disease therapeutic concept stock that achieved a breakthrough in drug data, surging over 34%, marking its largest increase in nearly two years.

- Respiratory device company ResMed fell over 11% to a two-month low, and Inspire Medical Systems, a company treating obstructive sleep apnea, dropped 16% to a seven-month low. Competitor Eli Lilly rose over 2%, approaching an all-time high, as Eli Lilly's weight loss drug tirzepatide can reduce the severity of obstructive sleep apnea.

- Bitcoin fell below the psychological round numbers of $59,000 and $60,000, leading to a general decline in blockchain-related stocks. Canaan Technology, the world's first cryptocurrency mining machine stock, fell over 7%, and Coinbase, the first cryptocurrency trading platform stock in the US, fell 6%.

- European stocks generally rose, with Italian and French stock indices leading the major national indices with gains over 1%, and German stocks also rising nearly 1%. Despite a lackluster technology sector, the pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up 0.73%, approaching a two-week high, marking its fourth day of gains in six, with the Italian bank index rising over 3%. Zealand, a Danish weight loss drug producer, rose about 5.7%, continuing to set a historical high, while ASM International fell 2.7%, and ASML closed down over 1.5%.

- US Treasury yields edged higher and then turned lower at the end of the day, not far from the low since early April, as French bond prices rose.

- Awaiting the key inflation data on Friday, US Treasury yields edged higher and then turned lower at the end of the day. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, once rose nearly 2 basis points and approached 4.75%, then fell to 4.72% at the end of the US stock market. The 10-year base bond yield once rose 2 basis points and approached 4.28%, then fell 2 basis points to 4.23% at the end of the day, more than a week ago, US Treasury yields had fallen to the lowest level since early April in ten weeks.

- The 10-year German bond yield, a benchmark for the eurozone, rose by less than 1 basis point at the end of the day, while the two-year yield rose by nearly 2 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield fell by over 2 basis points. The base bond yields of debt-ridden peripheral countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece also fell. The two-year UK bond yield rose by about 2 basis points, while medium and long-term UK bond yields fell by less than 1 basis point.Oil prices rose by 1%, hovering at their highest levels in eight weeks since the end of April, with Brent crude closing above $86, and U.S. natural gas increasing by 4%.

After a high retreat on Friday, oil prices rose again as they began the last trading week of the first half of the year. WTI August crude oil futures closed up $0.90, or more than 1.1%, at $81.63 per barrel, approaching the seven-week high set last week. Brent August crude oil futures closed up $0.77, or more than 0.90%, at $86.01 per barrel, marking the highest level since April 30.

U.S. oil WTI peaked at over $1 or 1.3% higher during the session, returning to above $81, having set a seven-week high for three consecutive trading days last week. The more actively traded international Brent September futures also rose by about $1 or 1.1%, breaking through the $85 mark.

Mainstream investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup are all optimistic about the fuel demand driven by the peak of summer travel in the Northern Hemisphere and indoor cooling, expecting it to boost oil prices in the third quarter and significantly reduce inventories. TD Securities pointed out that as tensions escalate on the Israel-Lebanon border, the risk of Middle East supply has once again become a focus, with monthly gains for WTI and Brent crude possibly being 6% and 5.4%, respectively.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures, as well as ICE UK futures, both rose by about 1% at the end of the trading day, having previously traded near a two-week low. The U.S. natural gas August contract turned positive, rising by nearly 4%, moving away from a two-week low, with the year-to-date gain returning to 9%.

The U.S. dollar moved away from its nearly eight-week high, with the yen once approaching 160, the offshore yuan once breaking through 7.28, and Bitcoin falling below $60,000.

The U.S. Dollar Index DXY, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell as much as 0.4%, briefly losing 105.40, having risen above 105.90 last Friday to its highest level since May 1, marking more than seven weeks. For the week, it rose by 0.2% and has been rising for three consecutive weeks.

The euro rose 0.4% against the dollar and returned above 1.07, moving away from its lowest level since the end of April, but fell by about 1% in June. The British pound rose 0.3% against the dollar and attempted to approach 1.27, moving away from its lowest level since mid-May. A candidate for finance minister after the victory of the far-right alliance in France stated that they would abide by EU fiscal rules, easing the sell-off in French stocks and bonds and the euro's safe-haven decline.

The yen fell to 159.93 against the dollar at one point, approaching the psychological level of 160. U.S. stocks stopped falling and turned positive during trading, still hovering near their lowest levels since April 29, also the lowest in thirty-four years. The market speculates that 160 may be the warning line for the Japanese government to intervene in the currency market. The huge interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. has led to the yen falling by 1.5% in June and more than 10% against the dollar so far this year.Offshore Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar rose to a daily high at the start of US stock trading, with the highest increase of 130 points or 0.2% during the day, once breaking through 7.28 yuan, then the gains narrowed, but it remained above 7.29 yuan, slightly moving away from a seven-month low.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies have been falling for several consecutive days. Bitcoin, the largest in market value, saw its losses expand to 7% at the end of US stock trading, not only breaking through the $60,000 mark but also losing the $59,000 level, reaching the lowest in nearly eight weeks since May 1st. Ethereum, the second-largest, fell by 4% and broke through $3,300, reaching the lowest in five weeks since mid-May.

Bitcoin fell about 10% in June, and last week it fell more than 8%, the second-worst single-week performance of the year, but it still rose more than 40% year-to-date. Some analysts say that only a rate cut by the Federal Reserve can substantially benefit cryptocurrencies, which are also considered risk assets. Bitcoin funds have seen the largest two-week capital outflow since the ETF was approved in the US in January this year, with $1.2 billion flowing out, especially after the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

Spot gold rebounded above $2,330, nearing a two-week high, while New York cocoa futures fell 11% to the lowest in nearly a month.

The dollar's decline supported precious metal prices. COMEX August gold futures rose 0.7% to $2,346.40 per ounce at the end of trading, while COMEX July silver futures fell slightly to $29.60 per ounce.

Spot gold rose by more than $12 or 0.5%, returning to above the $2,330 mark. It had approached $2,370 last week to reach a two-week high but fell sharply on Friday and turned negative for the week. Spot silver fluctuated and turned positive, still hovering at a one-week low.

Analysts point out that cooling economic data supports the US to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Lower interest rates will benefit precious metals that do not provide a fixed yield. Uncertainty surrounding elections in many parts of the world and escalating conflicts in the Middle East both provide support for safe-haven assets. Bank of America and Citigroup have released reports with long-term gold price forecasts of $3,000 per ounce, while gold had risen to a record high of $2,450 on May 20th.

In London, basic industrial metals saw mixed gains and losses, with small fluctuations. The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" closed down $22 or 0.2%, continuing to be less than the $9,700 mark, approaching a two-month low. London aluminum also fell slightly, hovering at a two-month low. London zinc rose slightly, London lead fell slightly, London nickel rose 0.6%, but it is not far from the low since early April, and London tin closed slightly higher.

New York cocoa futures fell by more than 11% and broke below $7,900 per ton, reaching the lowest in nearly a month since May 27th. Some analysts worry that the second-quarter global report to be released next month will show that record-high prices will damage demand. Cocoa prices have risen by 88% this year,有望创下1980年以来最佳表现. Last week, cocoa futures had fallen by more than 11.6%.