Nvidia Loses $3 Trillion in 3 Days

The throne of the global market value king hadn't even warmed up when Nvidia faced a fierce correction. On June 24th local time, Nvidia's stock price plummeted by nearly 6.7%, marking the largest single-day drop in two months. The consecutive three-day decline has already wiped out more than $430.6 billion (approximately 3.13 trillion yuan) from its market value, allowing Microsoft and Apple to overtake it once again and return to the third position in the US stock market value.

However, the "wealth creation" myth of the "Yellow Pope" is not about to end. In the eyes of investors, this may be a "profit-taking" phenomenon that occurs after Nvidia's stock price "reaches the peak."

In the past year and a half, Nvidia's total market value has increased tenfold. If measured in decades, this figure is an astonishing 500 times. Riding on the high stock prices, investors' "pocketing profits" and executives' cashing out have put pressure on its stock price.

SEC information shows that between June 13th and 24th, CEO Huang Renxun has cumulatively reduced his holdings in Nvidia by over 600,000 shares, cashing out a total amount of nearly $79.383 million (approximately 580 million yuan), with an additional 120,000 shares pending sale. At the same time, other executives, including Nvidia's CFO and Executive Vice President, have also reduced their holdings.

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Washington Service data indicates that, excluding the impact of the 1-for-10 stock split on June 10th, Nvidia's executives and directors have cumulatively reduced their holdings by approximately 770,000 shares, cashing out over $700 million (approximately 5.1 billion yuan); since the release of the first-quarter report at the end of May, more than 1/3 of insiders have reduced their holdings.

Renaissance Macro Research analysts predict that this correction may bring Nvidia's stock price back to the level of around $110 in early June.

Analysts are concerned that investors may have become fatigued with the AI track in the short term. The delay of GPT-5 until the end of 2025 to 2026 also raises concerns that the iteration of AI technology is slowing down. If signs of a slowdown in technology spending emerge, the market's excessive optimism about AI could quickly dissipate.

Zhu Xiaohu, the director of Gobi Partners, pointed out whether Nvidia's market value myth can continue depends on the effectiveness of ScalingLaw (the law of scale). He stated bluntly that if OpenAI's GPT-5.0 does not meet expectations, Nvidia will face greater turmoil.

Market concerns are not baseless. It is important to note that among the "US stock market's seven giants," Nvidia has the smallest annual revenue but the highest price-to-earnings ratio. Behind the ultra-high price-to-earnings ratio lies the capital market's extremely high expectations for its development. If Nvidia's subsequent growth shows signs of fatigue, stock price fluctuations are inevitable."Brother Huang," who has teetered on the brink of bankruptcy several times, deeply understands this truth. He has sounded the alarm within the company that NVIDIA must not follow the path of Cisco or Sun Microsystems, rising quickly only to fall just as fast.

Brother Huang began to attempt to break the deadlock, with one key being to break free from dependence on major clients. UBS analysts speculate that NVIDIA's largest customer may be Microsoft, which contributed 19% of NVIDIA's revenue in the fiscal year of 2024.

In order to spread the eggs into more baskets, Huang Renxun is also promoting "National Sovereignty AI." The intention is to enable every country to build AI capabilities using their own infrastructure, data, workforce, and business networks. He predicts that this business will bring nearly $10 billion in revenue to NVIDIA this year.

While adjusting the demand structure, Brother Huang also has to deal with changes in competitors and customers. At present, chip manufacturers such as AMD and Intel have joined the competition to "divide the AI pie"; major customers of NVIDIA like Microsoft and Google are also developing their own products to "substitute" and try to break free from dependence. They are all preparing to "besiege" NVIDIA.

It can be said that NVIDIA, which was propelled to the peak by the heat of the times, does not have its fate in the capital market entirely in its own hands.

Although NVIDIA's moat in the AI field can keep it standing at the top of the market in the short term, investors are more concerned about the profitability of downstream companies in the AI ecosystem. If it is difficult to make consumers pay in real money, the logic and support of the AI track will face a greater test.

Amidst these troubles, whether NVIDIA's ultra-high market value myth will "run out of fuel" has become the most concerned topic for investors at the moment. The recent decline of NVIDIA has also further amplified the controversy in the market.

Bears believe that NVIDIA's "Cisco moment" is brewing; however, at present, most investors still hold a bullish attitude. Bloomberg data shows that over 90% of analysts recommend buying NVIDIA, and their target price is about 12% higher than the current stock price. After this pullback, on June 25th, Eastern Time, NVIDIA's stock price turned red again and returned to the upward channel.

Obviously, under the huge wave of the AI era, the entire industrial ecosystem and market cognition are undergoing changes, and the ups and downs of giants in the short term are also normal. For NVIDIA, it needs to follow the changes more quickly, adjust its posture, and layout quickly according to demand in this AI throne competition to have the possibility of sitting steadily on the throne.

Times can "create gods" and can also pull them off the altar. Huang Renxun, who has experienced several ups and downs, is striving to firmly bind NVIDIA to this fast-moving era of AI. After all, this is a great opportunity he has gained after decades of accumulation.

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